An exchange of strikes on refineries and gas facilities was limited but raised the risks to an industry with broad economic impacts.

Markets, as always, are focusing on what they can most easily quantify — the oil price. The consensus, which seems sensible to us, is that while prices might go higher from here, the chance of a big spiralling increase is quite low.

Israel and Iran continue to fire a volley of missiles and drones at one another, targeting energy infrastructure as well as residential areas. The conflict, which has killed over 220 people so far since Friday (June 13),