The National Bureau of Economic Research makes the final call based on three factors. It’s a private organization.

President Donald Trump downplayed growing recession fears and reaffirmed his economic ambitions in a recent interview with NBC News’ Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker, conducted at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida.

If the US president moderates his tariff war against China, or if value networks find ways of “ China-washing ” exports to the US via third countries, the same can happen in reverse. Only if Trump is determined to keep ratcheting up protection to stop imports will trade and the economy fail to recover.