New York City and the East Coast will likely have a soggy winter as warmer weather takes hold from California to Florida, and a deep chill settles across the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Plains.

La Niña conditions are expected to play a key role in shaping the season’s weather. The Climate Prediction Center suggests there is a 74% chance of La Niña affecting the U.S., leading to cooler ocean temperatures.

In examining the seasonal temperature outlook encapsulating December, January and February, the entirety of New York has the same odds of experiencing a warmer winter. From New York City to Buffalo, the state as a whole has a 40% to 50% likelihood of seeing warmer-than-average temperatures this coming winter.